NFL Week 3 betting report, Week 4 line movements

The NFL Week 3 betting report surprised me. I had no idea so many games went UNDER. No wonder my bookie buddies haven’t been as salty this week. How did you do on your week 3 bets?

Public Loves Favorites & the OVER

If you’re a follower, you had a back week. Maybe you buy picks from a sharp capper, or maybe you followed a hunch and deviated from protocol.

But if your bets and parlays included some OVERs, chances are you had a losing week.

This is an excerpt from last week’s article, highlighting NFL Week 2 and it’s betting trends:

“The totals were split 8-8, which looks very average. But it wasn’t. The OVER was 5-1 in the same games that started after 4 PM ET. With the Thursday nighter going OVER, this means that 7 out of 9 early Sunday games when UNDER the total.

I’ll be keeping an eye on this trend as the season progresses. It may be nothing more than an anomaly, but if it continues, it could affect my strategy.”

NFL Week 3 Betting Report – Lingering Trend?

Let’s start off with the dogs, because anyone that knows me, knows I love my dogs.

Unfortunately, none of my dogs hit last weekend. But 6 dogs won outright on Sunday. Perhaps the biggest surprise was the Chargers going into Arrowhead as a 6.5-point underdog and winning by 6.

Herbert coming out party
Herbert coming out party

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I talked in-depth about this game (click the “NFL Week 2” link above), it was Justin Herbert’s coming out party. It was an AFC West dogfight. The other dogs to win outright were two teams that had no right being dogs – Saints and Falcons – and the Bengals.

As impressive as the LA win over KC was, this was a huge win for Joe Burrow and the Bengals. They went into Pittsburgh and spanked their division rivals. I can’t wait for the second matchup in Week 12.

The ATS record in the NFL Week 3 betting report is split at 8-8. The only thing that sticks out to me is 6 dogs won. You take those out of the equation, and favorites went 8-2.

Before we move on, did you see my take on Joe West a couple days ago? If you hate Cuntry Joe like me, it’s worth a read.

Week 3 Betting Report – Early UNDERs

Eleven of the 16 games in Week 3 went UNDER.

In the 6 games that kickoff after 4 PM ET on Sunday, the OVER was 4-2.

That means in the 10 games on the Thursday and early Sunday schedule went 9-1. The only game that went OVER was Washington vs. Buffalo. The Bills almost scored enough to put the game OVER. The total was 45.5, they scored 43.

When you put last week and this week’s early games together, the UNDER is now an incredible 16-3! I’m still skeptical of this being a true trend, but it is something I am REALLY starting to keep my eye on.

I don’t know what I like more. Early UNDERs or late OVERs.

NFL WEEK 4 Line Movements

The craziest line movement of the week has to be Ravens at Broncos. The Westgate in Vegas had the Ravens open as a -1.5-point favorite last Tuesday. On Sunday night, it moved to Broncos -2.5. It is currently DEN -1.

This week’s Thursday Night Football game, Jags at Bengals, has also seen significant line movement. I’m just not sure if I like how this line went down. Draft King Sportsbook is changing the gaming industry, and not in a good way.

They opened the line last Tuesday afternoon with the Bengals a 4.5-point favorite. The Westgate were the next shop with a line, Bengals -6.5. About an hour later, DK moved their line to 6.5. It’s currently at -7.5 right across the board.

Do ya’ll know about line shopping? I’ve talked about it countless times in the past, but you should read a little about it. Having 3 or 4 books to have a variety of lines is the easiest way to increase your winning percentage. A point here and a half point there go a long way over the year.

NFL Week 3 Betting Report & Total Movements

Some of the biggest line movements so far for Week 4 are totals. They include:

  • Detroit @ Chicago – Open 47 / Currently 42.5
  • NY Giants @ New Orleans – Open 47 / Currently 42
  • Arizona @ LA Rams – Open 50 / Currently 55

It is easy to see why these lines moved, and maybe they read my article from last week and adjusted. There seems to be a major shift in parity, with some teams being much better on both sides of the ball.

Finding these differences is what separates the successful handicappers from the ones that are all hype. I’m zeroing in on a few games for Sunday, so be sure to watch for my plays on Twitter and Instagram at the_JoeBerra.

“Between the Chalk”

Joe Berra

 

Some or all of the stories, ideas and opinions shared in Between the Chalk may or may not be fact or fiction. These articles are strictly for entertainment purposes only.

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