MLB Series Prices | June 14 | MLB Surprises

Like every year, a few MLB surprises are shaping up in the 2024 season. Sal here to touch base with how I see the league so far. Baseball has so many levels to enable players to get a shot at finding their groove.

Someone no one heard of that started the year in Double A, could still be this year’s rookie of the year. It’s most likely not going to happen. However, there are so many players that could make an impact, that not even the greatest prognosticators could predict the outcome.

We’re going to get into last week’s MLB series prices picks, and a few for this weekend. First, we are going to look at some of the biggest MLB surprises for me so far in 2024.

MLB Surprises Start in American League Central

Let’s start with some positive MLB surprises. Some feel-good unanticipated outcomes to come out of the 2024 season so far. The Cleveland Guardians have to be one of the biggest surprises, if not the biggest MLB surprise in 2024.

Last year, Cleveland finished 10 games under .500, 11 games back of the American League Central winning Minnesota Twins. So far this season, the Guardians are 43 – 23, with a sparkling 21 – 8 record at home. They’re also a very respectable 22 – 15 on the road. Their +90 run differential is third in the American League, behind only the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles.

In that same vein I would be hard-pressed not to mention the Kansas City Royals. They are only five games back of the Guardians, but have also played to a +60 run differential. That’s good for fourth behind the Guardians. The Royals are 40 – 30, 2nd in the Central. They need to improve their 15 – 16 record away from Kauffman Stadium. KC is 25 and 14 at home.

National League Central Also Houses MLB Surprises

In the National League, the Central is where a couple of my MLB surprises come out of. The St. Louis Cardinals had a horrible season last year that saw them finish 71 – 91. That was good for dead last in the NL Central. The Cardinals have gotten back to their winning ways in 2024, to become one of the best MLB surprises.

The other surprise out of the NL Central are the Pittsburgh Pirates. Sure, they are currently last in the Central at 32 – 36. But they are only eight games back of the division leading Brewers.

The Pirates did lose their last series against St. Louis. They won their two previous series. That included 1 to nothing and 10 to 6 wins over the Los Angeles Dodgers … Jones and Skenes were pitching. However, they lost the third game 11 to 7. Following the Dodgers series, they also won the first two vs. the Twins. Winning by a combined score of 7-0.

Can the Pirates Make the Playoffs in 2024

There’s just something about Major League Baseball when the Pirates are good. I don’t know what it is. I can’t put my finger on it, but when the Pirates are playing good baseball, I don’t know, it seems like all is right.

The Pittsburgh Pirates one-two punch of rookies in their starting rotation is the best we’ve seen in a while. Jared Jones and Paul Skeens is possibly one of the more potent rookie duos to grace a team in years. If Mitch Keller can get back to his ways, he will be a great number three starter. Can the Pirates be one of the true MLB surprises in 2024?

Their lineup is still working in progress. The Buccos need Oneill Cruz to continue to improve. But with role players like Brian Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen and Connor Joe, along with guys like Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski and a couple of other guys down the pipeline, we might see the Pirates fighting for a playoff spot sooner rather than later.

MLB Surprises – Is Mets Being Bad a Surprise? 

There are also a few MLB surprises that are of an unfavorable result. Teams that have not lived up to expectations outweigh the MLB surprises that have exceeded expectations.

Of course the Mets, once again, are a major disappointment at 29 – 37. They are already 16 1/2 games behind the Phillies for top spot in the NL East. Their 15 – 23 record at home is absolutely atrocious. They’re actually better on the road, one game above .500 at 15 – 14. A -29 run differential shows that things are not right with the Mets.

Some other teams that have failed to live up to preseason expectations include the Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays. Let me know if you like this type of information over on my Instagram @the_joeberra.

How We Did on Last Week’s MLB Series Prices

I went 2-2 on my published MLB series prices plays last week. You can see them in last week’s MLB Series Prices Dodgers Yankees Clash article. But because of the juice, we ended up down half a unit. You can see the details below, but we had the Dodgers winning their series in the Bronx. My other winner was Cleveland over Miami.

My losing wagers were the Mariners vs. the Royals and Twins over Pirates. I know, I just spoke glowingly about Pittsburgh, but their series win over the Twins was part of that.

Jones was the probable pitcher for the Pirates in Game 3, but Skenes wasn’t scheduled to pitch until their series against the Cards. Minnesota was coming off a sweep at the hands of the Yankees and liked Minny to rebound.

I really like the Guardians this year. We got a bit of a scare after they lost Game 1 to the Marlins. But they help serve and won the final two. The Dodgers @ Yankees series was must-see TV. This potential World Series didn’t disappoint. Both to MLB fans and my betting bankroll.

Why You Should Follow My Picks – MLB Surprises

Because I only do this article once a week, I don’t get to publish all of my picks on my website. However, you’ll always find some MLB surprises over on my handicapper profile page. You can visit it here, to all Sal Lombardi’s past, present and future picks.

Anyways, now that my shameless plug is done, here’s why you need to go follow me. The MLB schedule isn’t easy to follow for the novice. Most MLB series are 3 games, however there are plenty of 4-game series and even 2-game series.

The MLB series price picks I publish on Fridays all feature series starting that day. Sometimes I will add plays on Monday and Thursday, depending when the series starts and when the betting markets are live.

I was browsing the lines on Thursday and loved the Rockies in St. Louis at +300. Our software allows a max bet of $100 (to keep it fair among competitions), but I personally placed 2.5 units on this play. It was a nice $750 payout. The Cubs couldn’t score in Cincy, but ended the weekend at up +$251 on recorded picks.

MLB Series Prices Picks for June 14 – 16

We’re getting into a strange segment of the MLB season. We’re 70+ games into the 162 game season. Teams pretty much know where they stand. They know if they’re a playoff team or have a shot at the playoffs.

Teams that are already 12-14 games out, and double-digit games under .500, tend to not ply as hard as their million dollar contracts suggest they should. That attitude spreads like wildfire in the clubhouse.

On the flipside, teams that are on the cusp of playoff contention, especially young teams, are heavily motivated. Our MLB surprises. Our job is to find the teams that are running out every ground ball. Teams that are well coached and show discipline. Here’s where my money is going this weekend. 

St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs MLB Series Prices

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (SERIES) +150
CHICAGO CUBS (SERIES) -170

I love this play, especially at +150. It’ll be a 2.5 unit play. Most won’t see this in time, with this series getting started early. It’s a Friday afternoon game on the North Side. Will this +150 be one of my MLB surprises for this weekend?

The Cubs haven’t won a series since mid-May, except for a small 2-game set vs. the Northsiders. Chicago must be a heavy favorite because of their home record, paired with their starting pitching probables. They’re scheduled to send Wicks, Imanaga and Taillon to the bump.

The Cardinals are countering with Gibson, Pallante and Mikolas. If the Cards can sneak out a win on Friday afternoon, I love their chances of winning at least 1 of the last 2.

This series features two stand-alone games, with the early ROKU Sunday start, to go along with afternoon ball at Wrigley. I’m taking the St. Louis Cardinals to win the series in Wrigley for a nice +150 payout.

MLB Series Prices Pick: Cardinals to win the series at +150

Cleveland Guardians @ Toronto Blue Jays MLB Series Prices

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (SERIES) +140
TORONTO BLUE JAYS (SERIES) -160

I spent a lot of time in Canada, and know how much those Canucks love their Blue Jays. Getting love from the fams HAS to be the only reason for them being such a favorite here.

Every single metric I’ve looked at gives Cleveland the edge. And some aren’t even close. Let’s look at runs for and against:

TEAM	RUNS FOR	RUNS AGAINST
Guardians	332 (6th)	242 (3rd)
Blue Jays	265 (26th)	300 (16th)

Just these metrics alone show the distance these two have between each other. Cleveland are 43 – 23, while the Jays are 33 – 35. I can keep going, but you get the point. The Guards probables are Allen, Carrasco and Lively, which is probably why they are such a dog. The Jays got Gausman, Yariel Rodríguez and Berrios slated to take the bump.

This is a 1.5 unit play for me. 

MLB Series Prices Pick: Guardians to win the series at +140

San Diego Padres @ New York Mets MLB Series Prices

SAN DIEGO PADRES (SERIES) +100
NEW YORK METS (SERIES) -120

I’m either way off on my reads at the moment, or Vegas plus fans must be driving MLB series prices. There are a bunch of series prices that I feel could be flipped, and this is one of them.

As I stated earlier, the Mets have been terrible. And even worse at home. This weekend, the Mets host the Padres. New York is going through one of their best stretches of the season – winning 6 of their last 8. But do they have enough to take 2 from the Friars?

Following a stretch 2 weeks ago, San Diego has rattled off 5 wins in their last 6. Their rotation is set to send Waldron, Mazur and Cease at Citi Field. The Mets have Manaea, Quintana and Megill scheduled. Doesn’t exactly strike fear in your opponent does it?

Taking the value here (1 unit play) and taking the Padres to win their series in Queens.

MLB Series Prices Pick: Padres to win the series at +100

Other MLB Surprises – Part Unit Value Plays

I really do like this weekend’s MLB series prices. The first 3 plays are my favorite plays, but I just can’t get past the value these two plays offer. If anyone has been following me, you know Uncle Sal cannot pass up value.

Sometimes I’ll tell someone that is pressing to place a bet, just because they need some action. Not only is this degenerate behavior, it’ll also drain your account. The best bet is sometimes the one you didn’t place. Also, don’t press for MLB surprises.

For me, the same goes when there is sufficient enough value to place a part unit wager. That’s where I am with these two weekend series’. It’s the MLB surprises that often boost you cash flow.

Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Series Prices

KANSAS CITY ROYALS (SERIES) +225
LOS ANGELES DODGERS (SERIES) -280

There is no doubt that the Dodgers are a strong bet to be representing the National League in the World Series in 2024. But even the best teams lose 60 games.

I mentioned earlier that the KC Royals are one of the most pleasant MLB surprises so far. Their run differential, at +60, is the 7th best in all of baseball. Sure, the Dodgers are 4th (+102), but you can bet this young Royals squad will be plenty motivated to play at Dodger Stadium.

I love Cole Ragans, and he will start Game 1 tonight, matching up against Gavin Stone. I’m predicting a tight affair in Chavez Ravine. Check my picks later, I’m on the UNDER. I love KC to take Game 1. KC sends Lugo and Singer, with Dodgers lined up for Yamamoto and Glasnow to close out the series.

I’m putting a half unit on the Royals.

MLB Series Prices Pick: Royals to win the series at +225

Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles MLB Series Prices

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (SERIES) +125
BALTIMORE ORIOLES (SERIES) -145

Last weekend featured a possible 2024 World Series matchup when the Dodgers played the Yankees. This wouldn’t be one of my MLB surprises. This weekend we have another marquee matchup featuring two more teams that could meet in the finals.

This play is definitely not a slight to the Orioles. I love the Orioles, and have a preseason win total future placed on them. I got them at 90.5 wins. This is more of the same, a value play.

Simply put, the Phillies are one of the best teams in baseball. They are solid all around, just like the Orioles. Ranger Suárez, Walker and Wheeler are scheduled for Philadelphia. The Orioles will send Bradish, Rodriguez and Burnes.

The Phillies are a half unit play.

MLB Series Prices Pick: Phillies to win the series at +125

Stay tuned next week when we review our plays and see what other MLB surprises we can uncover.