MLB Series Prices | June 21 | Hedging Bets

Last week, my MLB series prices picks were … interesting to say the least. The hedging opportunities created numerous ways to play out the weekend, with betting bankroll management saving the day.

I’ll touch on bankroll management another time, but I’m going to talk about hedging your bets this week. Hedging is somewhat of an advanced betting strategy. It’s really not difficult to do, and it can provide you with risk management.

When you hedge the right bets at the right time, you can not only save yourself money, but it can help you win more too. Later, I’ll review last week’s series prices plays and where I had prime hedging opportunities. My top plays for the weekend of June 21-23 are below too.

First, let’s learn about hedging bets. Some key points when considering hedging bets are:

• Hedging a bet is a way to limit risk
• Betting the opposite side of a wager is the most common way to hedge a bet
• Hedging parlays and futures offer countless opportunities with line movements

What is Hedging in Sports Betting

Whether you are a newbie to the world of betting game or a gambling vet, we can all learn something about hedging. Maybe you have been wondering about the best strategies to safeguard your bets? If so, then let’s talk about the concept of hedging.

In the simplest terms, hedging a bet is the act of mitigating your original bet by making a second one. You essentially take the other side – which could happen for various reasons. You’re making a secondary wager that helps to nullify your original bet.

It’s like buying insurance for your bets, minimizing the potential loss and maximizing the chance of profit irrespective of the result. Hedging in the world of sports betting is essentially a risk management strategy. When you think of hedging, picture the notion of “creating a safety net.”

Mastering the Art of Hedging a Bet – Example of Hedging

The evolution of sports betting has opened up betting markets that allow hedging possibilities. It’s never been more wide open to hedge your bets. Futures, live betting, team props, player props and other markets like MLB series prices give us plenty of opportunity.

Hedging opportunities arise when a betting line shifts. Sometimes that line will shift in your advantage, while other times it’ll move against you. How you will hedge your bet is what you need to figure out next.

For educational purposes, I’m going to give a simple example to explain hedging that everyone will understand. Later we’ll get into some advanced aspects of hedging.

Let’s imagine it’s mid-October and the NFL season is in full swing. Teams are getting a good feel for where they stand with 6 weeks in the books. Week 7 is upon us (in this scenario) and we check the odds early in the week.

Lions are a 5-point Road Favorite

The Detroit Lions are playing in Minnesota, and your sportsbook has the Lions as a 5-point road favorite. From everything you see, you’re in love with that line, so you put $100 on the Lions to cover on Tuesday morning.

During practice on Friday, word gets out that there is a brutal stomach bug going around the Lions’ locker room. They will potentially be without their QB, #1 RB, 2 starting d-linemen, 2 starting o-linemen and their kicker. 

Before the line changes, you don’t feel anywhere near as comfortable about your bet. To mitigate your risk, you then put $100 on the Vikings at +5. This is the simplest form of hedging your bet.

Given that you’ve now bet on both outcomes in that NFL point spread market, you’ve effectively eliminated your risk exposure. This means you can’t lose money. You’ve hedged, or bought out, your initial position. This is considered a defensive action.

Going On Offensive With Middling While Hedging Bets

Let’s say in the same example as above you stuck with your original bet. So the only action you have on that game is Lions -5. Heading into halftime, the Lions are up 21-13.

Live betting lines have set the point spread at 11.5. You can hedge your original bet to provide insurance that Justin Jefferson doesn’t go off. If the Lions fall apart in the second half, you’re covered. So you put a full or part unit on the Vikings +11.5.

Not only does this provide risk management for your bankroll, it also puts you in a “middling” scenario.

A middle, also known as middling, is a betting strategy that allows you to take advantage of a shifting betting line. It could be a point spread, or a totals line. Even a moneyline, if you see the right opportunity. A middle occurs when you wager on both sides of the same event. In this sense, middling is a hedging strategy, but your aim isn’t reducing your liability.

Use Every Advantage At Your Disposal

Now, not only have you bet both sides of the same market, but there’s also a middle ground – between Detroit -5 and Minnesota +11.5. In this scenario, you could theoretically win both bets. You have almost a touchdown cushion to cash both of these tickets.

This type of hedging opportunity is optimal for bettors. You have zero net risk, with the potential to win both sides of a bet in the NFL spreads market.

You have to remember that sportsbooks have been doing this for decades. There’s a reason why their point spreads and totals are often VERY CLOSE. They know where to find all the answers, while getting the inside scoop most of us could only dream about getting our hands on.

By learning some of the more intricate details of sports betting, you will help yourself in the long run. Let’s get into some more ways you can use hedging to your advantage.

Hedging Your Futures Bet

There are plenty of futures markets where you can execute hedging wagers. Futures, depending on when you get in, can last a full season. We’re talking months on top of months. This time allows for the key hedging ingredient to get stirred in. Line movements.

Hedging can be successfully used when betting on championship futures. For example, you bet on an underdog (or two) to win the Super Bowl. One of those teams make it to the Super Bowl. Here, you can consider betting on their opponent as a hedge. This will guarantee you a profit, no matter the final outcome.

Of course, bankroll management and use of units will also come into play here. It’s good to have equal money on both sides. Obviously, you also have to consider if wagering on the opposite side of your original bet is the best course of action.

Sometimes the best bet you make is the one you don’t actually bet.

Lessen Your Risk By Hedging Your Parlay

Now that we’ve covered most of the basics of hedging, let’s see how we can use it on parlays. Personally, I don’t like parlays, but that’s besides the point.

It’s Week 7 of the NFL. You identify 4 sides you like against the spread. Each side is priced at -110. A $100 bet comes with a potential profit of $1228. These 4 games are spread out across Week 7. This parlay includes the Thursday Night Football matchup, 2 games from Sunday with the last leg coming from Monday Night Football.

As Week 7 plays out, and the Sunday games are completed, your first 3 legs of the 4 leg parlay have hit. Now, all you need is Baltimore to cover on the road in Tampa Bay.

We know if the Ravens do cover, we will win $1228. However, maybe you want to mitigate some risk and guarantee some sort of a payout. To do this, consider betting on the Buccaneers against the spread.

Most bettors will risk about 20% of their profit from the original bet. This figure will guarantee a profit on all results. As with all bets, each will have different circumstances you will have to consider when determining an amount of money to hedge.

Opportunities For Hedging MLB Series Prices

Now it’s time to see where hedging opportunities present themselves with MLB series prices. Series prices are essentially futures. As we spoke about earlier, futures allow for hedging opportunities because of the extended time period associated with the market. You can see last week’s series price picks here, where I also talked about MLB surprises.

Last week, I went 1-4 on my MLB series price picks. However, due to proper bankroll management, I ended up +0.25 of a unit – or $25. The Cardinals to win the series vs. the Cubs was my favorite play. It was a 2.5-unit play.

But I’m here to talk about the hedging opportunities those plays came with. Four of our MLB series price picks for June 14 came down to the rubber match on Sunday. The only ticket not live was the Padres, who were swept by Grimace and the Mets. But these other 4 series’ offered a huge hedging menu.

The Phillies, Guardians, Royals and Cardinals all went into Sunday’s game 1-1 in their series. All series prices were at plus-money, giving even more options.

Should You Double Down or Hedge Your Bets

You have to ask yourself a question. Do I double-down on my original bet, or do I use these hedging chances to eliminate some risk? There will never always be one answer, with each series being different.

How did the teams perform during the 1st two games? Who are the pitching matchups shaping up? Once the lineups are released, are any star players getting the day off? Sunday is a common day for managers to rest players. Usually due to an off day on Monday, giving a nice rest period.

I won’t bore you with my thoughts for each series, but here’s how I played my Guardians vs. Blue Jays play. Getting the Guardians to win the series against the Jays, at home, at +140 made absolutely no sense to me. After seeing that Cleveland’s best player, Jose Ramirez, was put on the paternity list, it all started making more sense.

First, this is proof that sportsbooks get ALL THE INFO. This is why us as bettors need to be as informed as possible. It is also why most people should consider buying picks from a professional handicapper. Most people do not have the time to keep up on every bump and bruise, rest management schedule, and in this case, the birth of a child.

The Jays were a road favorite at -120, with Berrios on the bump. I liked the value in the Jays, so I hedged my original Guardians series wager. It ended up working out with Toronto edging out a 7-6 victory. I did also hedge the Phillies and Royals play. As it turns out, I should have hedged all except the Cards.

MLB Series Prices Picks for June 21 – 23

The season keeps rolling on, and so do my MLB series price picks. Injuries have been playing a huge part in the 2024 MLB season so far. It seems like All-Star pitchers and position players are going down like flies.

Paying attention to these injuries are paramount. Injuries, changes in probable pitchers and other factors will help determine weekend success in the series’.

Here are my MLB series price plays for this weekend.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians MLB Series Prices

TORONTO BLUE JAYS (SERIES) +125
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (SERIES) -145

This is my top play of the week. Go back and read what I wrote last week. I picked the Guardians vs. the Jays in Toronto last weekend. The Jays are not that good. Their 35-41 record is the only proof we need. I expect them to be busy leading up to the trade deadline.

This weekend, the Guardians will have Ramirez back in the lineup. From top to bottom, Cleveland’s batting lineup is better. They also have the edge in starting pitching and the bullpen.

This is a 2.5 unit play. 

MLB Series Prices Pick: Guardians to win the series at -145

Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins MLB Series Prices

SEATTLE MARINERS (SERIES) -165
MIAMI MARLINS (SERIES) +135

This is my second favorite play of the weekend. It’ll be a 2-unit play. A lot of the same things I said about the Guardians holds true to the Mariners. Especially when you compare them to the Marlins.

Seattle, although they have been somewhat inconsistent this season, are quite a bit better than the Marlins. Miami has had some tough luck, definitely when you look at their starting pitching staff. Injuries have taken a toll. Seattle holds the edge in most, if not all, relative pitching categories.

If Seattle can keep swinging the bat well, and win 1 of the 1st 2 games, I like them in the rubber match. It’s setting up Miller vs. an unknown starter. This price is a little steeper than I normally get into, but I like Seattle enough. As previously stated, this is a 2-unit play.

MLB Series Prices Pick: Mariners to win the series at -165

Boston Red Sox @ Cincinnati Reds MLB Series Prices

BOSTON RED SOX (SERIES) -115
CINCINNATI REDS (SERIES) -105

I really don’t know what to make of the Red Sox. They’ve shown flashes of greatness, followed by flashes of mediocrity. The same can be said for the Reds. Check their past schedule. They have stretches of wins, followed by stretches of losses.

Sometimes baseball can be a “streaky” game. Riding teams on win streaks can produce huge profits. I rode the Cardinals last season run a few years ago to net massive profits on my MLB season as a whole. Toot toot warning: I finished the top MLB handicapper in our network during the 2022 season.

Anyways, riding streaks can net profits. To put my money where my mouth is, I’m taking the Red Sox to win the series in Cincinnati. Coming into the series, Boston have won 5 in a row, including 2 vs. the Yankees and a 3-game sweep in Toronto.

This is another 2-unit play.

MLB Series Prices Pick: Red Sox to win the series at -115

More Potential Hedging Opportunities

Sometimes I let MLB series prices get the better of me. There are weeks I like the entire board, and feel like getting in on all the series. But, you know I love to closely monitor my bankroll.

Here are three more series I will be putting part units on.

Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies MLB Series Prices

WASHINGTON NATIONALS (SERIES) -115
COLORADO ROCKIES (SERIES) -105

The Nationals are a team on the rise. From the World Series to last place wasn’t a good look. Especially after jettisoning all of their top tiers superstars.

Those deals are now coming to fruition. They are still middle of the pack – at 2 games under .500 – but they show fight on most nights. Are their starting pitchers performing over their heads? Can they keep their bats going at mile high?

I like them to put more on the board over the weekend. I’m putting a half unit on the Nationals.

MLB Series Prices Pick: Nationals to win the series at -115

Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros MLB Series Prices

BALTIMORE ORIOLES (SERIES) -145
HOUSTON ASTROS  (SERIES) +125

It is no secret that the Orioles are one of my favorite teams to bet on this season. It all started with a preseason wins total wager – which I got at 90.5.

Now that we are almost 80 games in, the trends are showing profits in Baltimore’s favor. The Orioles are not only one of the best moneyline teams, they’re also paying out around 60% on run line wagers.

While the Astros are another streaky team, I like the Orioles to go into Houston and win at least two games. The Orioles are a half unit play.

MLB Series Prices Pick: Orioles to win the series at -145

Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers MLB Series Prices

KANSAS CITY ROYALS (SERIES) +145
TEXAS RANGERS  (SERIES) -125

This is a value play for me. But one that won’t break the bank. The Royals come into their series vs. Texas 3-8 in their last 11. I think the Royals are good enough from top to bottom to make the playoffs. But they need to turn it around now.

Texas had lost 5 in a row, before a win vs. the Mets to close out the series. I like the Royals when looking at the probable pitching matchups. Which is why I like them and their value at +145.

MLB Series Prices Pick: Royals to win the series at +145